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AI and Outsourcing in 2026: Winners, Losers & New Roles

What dated, published sources say about AI and outsourced work, from BLS, the ILO, the World Economic Forum, NASSCOM and IBPAP. It separates projections from facts and lists questions to ask your provider.

Published May 2026 · Last reviewed October 2026 · RSW Editorial

How to read the numbers in this article

Articles about AI and outsourcing often state market sizes, job losses and cost savings as settled facts. This version keeps only figures that appear in a published source we fetched between 13 and 31 October 2026, and it names the publisher and the date each time. Where a source gives a projection, we write that the publisher projects it, because a projection is one organisation's estimate and not an outcome.

It is written for small-business owners who buy, or are thinking about buying, outsourced or remote work such as customer support, bookkeeping, data processing or software development. For background on the service types, see our entries on business process outsourcing and knowledge process outsourcing. For a shorter take on offshore jobs, see Is AI gutting offshore jobs?.

What labour-market sources say about work that is often outsourced

US government projections for related occupations

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes employment projections for US occupations. They describe US jobs, not offshore teams, but they are the clearest dated public view of how automation is expected to affect the kinds of work that businesses outsource. The BLS pages cited here were last modified on 27 August 2026 and use 2025 as the base year. BLS also publishes AI exposure categories (page last modified 27 August 2026) that group occupations into four categories of relative AI exposure, using theoretical and observed measures. BLS states that an exposure category is not a forecast of employment growth or decline.

  • Customer service representatives. BLS reports about 2.7 million jobs in 2025 and projects employment to decline 5 percent from 2025 to 2035. It says there is expected to be less demand, especially in retail trade, as tasks continue to be automated through self-service systems, social media and mobile applications. It also projects about 289,500 openings a year over the decade, all from workers moving to other occupations or leaving the labour force, and notes that some companies will keep in-house service centres for complex enquiries such as refunding accounts or confirming insurance coverage. (BLS customer service representatives)
  • Bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks. BLS reports about 1.5 million jobs in 2025 and projects a 6 percent decline from 2025 to 2035. It says software has automated many of the tasks these workers perform, so the same amount of work can be done with fewer employees, and that these workers are expected to take on a more analytical and advisory role. (BLS bookkeeping clerks)
  • Accountants and auditors. BLS projects 5 percent growth from 2025 to 2035. It says AI and robotic process automation may increase productivity, and that the change is not expected to reduce overall demand for accountants. (BLS accountants and auditors)
  • Software developers, quality assurance analysts and testers. BLS projects 10 percent growth from 2025 to 2035 and links the strong demand to the continued expansion of software development for AI, the Internet of Things, robotics and other automation applications. (BLS software developers)

ILO: exposure is not the same as job loss

The International Labour Organization (ILO) published a working paper on 20 May 2025 that updates its index of occupational exposure to generative AI. It reports that one in four workers globally are in an occupation with some generative AI exposure, and that 3.3 percent of global employment falls into the highest exposure category. Clerical occupations have the highest exposure. The ILO adds that most occupations include tasks that need human input, so transformation of jobs is the most likely impact. (ILO working paper 140)

World Economic Forum: an employer survey, extrapolated

The World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs Report 2025, published on 7 January 2025, draws on a survey of more than 1,000 employers representing more than 14 million workers across 55 economies. Extrapolating from respondents' expectations for 2025 to 2030, the report estimates that job creation and displacement will amount to 22 percent of today's total jobs: new jobs equal to 14 percent of current employment (170 million), offset by displacement equal to 8 percent (92 million), for net growth of 7 percent (78 million jobs). It expects clerical and secretarial workers to see the largest decline in absolute numbers and lists data entry clerks among the fastest-declining roles. These are employer expectations and a modelled extrapolation. (WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, key findings)

What outsourcing industry bodies report

India: the NASSCOM Strategic Review 2026

NASSCOM, the Indian technology industry association, published its Strategic Review on 24 February 2026. It describes calendar 2025 as the year India's tech industry moved from AI experimentation to industrialisation, and says providers are re-engineering revenue models, moving away from full-time-equivalent delivery towards outcome-based, risk-sharing arrangements as AI-driven productivity materialises. NASSCOM expects the sector to cross USD 315 billion in FY26 and projects direct employment of about 6 million in FY26, up 2.3 percent, a net addition of 135,000 people. For FY27 it expects hiring to shift from volume to skill mix, and technology spending to stay range-bound at 5 to 7 percent year on year. (NASSCOM Strategic Review 2026 summary)

Philippines: IBPAP

The IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines, known as IBPAP, reports in its 2026 Philippine IT-BPM Industry Overview that the industry generated USD 40.3 billion in revenue and employed 1.89 million people (headcount/FTE) in 2025, up from 1.82 million and USD 38.0 billion in 2024. The same overview shows a 2026 forecast, labelled 2026F, of USD 42.3 billion and 1.94 million; a forecast is IBPAP’s estimate, not a result. IBPAP describes the industry’s next phase as including a new AI-enabled delivery layer built on existing strengths. (IBPAP, The Philippine IT-BPM Industry Overview, 2026)

Stanford AI Index 2026: capability is uneven

Stanford HAI reports in its 2026 AI Index that organisational adoption of AI reached 88 percent. It also describes a jagged frontier: AI agents improved from 12 percent to about 66 percent task success on a benchmark of real computer tasks, yet they still fail roughly one in three attempts on structured benchmarks. That pattern argues for human review of AI-assisted work rather than for assuming that a task is fully automated. (Stanford AI Index 2026)

What this suggests for the work you outsource

The sources above do not measure the effect on a single small-business contract, so the points below are our reading of them, not findings.

  • Routine, rules-based, high-volume tasks are where the sources describe the most consistent automation pressure: handling routine customer service tasks and the data entry that BLS says software has automated for bookkeeping clerks.
  • Complex or sensitive work is where sources describe humans staying involved. BLS expects some companies to keep in-house teams for complex customer enquiries, and expects bookkeeping staff to move towards analysis and advice.
  • BLS projects 10 percent growth for software developers, quality assurance analysts and testers from 2025 to 2035 and links that demand to AI and automation software.
  • NASSCOM's 2026 review describes Indian technology providers moving away from per-person delivery towards outcome-based arrangements. If you buy from such a provider, that can affect how you compare quotes.
  • AI output still needs checking. The Stanford AI Index shows strong gains and persistent failure rates on structured tasks, so build review steps into any AI-assisted workflow.

Questions to ask a provider about AI

  1. Which tasks in my contract do you do with AI assistance, and which are done by a person without it?
  2. How is the work reviewed before it reaches me, and who is accountable for errors in AI-assisted output?
  3. If AI tools reduce the time a task takes, how does that show up in my price? Is pricing per person, per task or per outcome?
  4. What happens to my data when AI tools are used? Which tools see it, where is it stored, and is it used to train anything?
  5. How do you train and upskill the people assigned to my account?
  6. What would you change in the contract if I asked for a different mix of people and automation next year?

Our data security guide for outsourcing covers the data questions in more detail.

A practical way to respond

  1. List your outsourced or remote tasks. Write each task in one line, with how often it happens and who does it today.
  2. Sort them. Mark each task as routine and rules-based, mixed, or judgement-heavy. Be honest about the mixed ones.
  3. Pilot before you change a contract. Test AI-assisted handling on a small slice of routine work, with a person reviewing every output, and record error rates over an agreed trial period.
  4. Re-run the cost comparison. Use the Remote Hiring Cost Calculator to compare a remote hire, a provider and an AI-assisted setup using your own inputs. The hiring model selector helps you choose between hiring models.
  5. Keep people where the risk is. Customer complaints, financial approvals and anything involving regulated data should keep a named human owner.
  6. Review every six months. Capability and pricing are changing. Our piece on human and AI remote team workflows describes ways to organise the handoffs, and the AI and machine learning engineer role guide explains what to look for if you hire for AI work directly.

For a view of where technical talent is concentrated, see the ranking of countries for data and AI talent. For a labour-market view from an international body, see our summary of the OECD employment outlook.

How automated agents and human assistants differ in practice is covered in our guide to AI agents versus virtual assistants.

Sources

References checked on 31 October 2026. This page is general information, not legal or tax advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will AI replace outsourcing?
The sources we checked do not say so. They describe task automation, changing job mixes and changing pricing models. The ILO says transformation of jobs is the most likely impact of generative AI, and NASSCOM describes providers shifting towards outcome-based arrangements. Treat any claim of complete replacement as unsupported unless it names a source and a date.
Which outsourced work is most exposed to automation, according to published sources?
Clerical and routine work is named most often. The ILO reports that clerical occupations have the highest generative AI exposure, the World Economic Forum expects clerical and secretarial roles to decline most in absolute numbers, and BLS projects declines for customer service representatives and bookkeeping clerks in the United States. These describe broad occupations, not your specific tasks.
Does AI exposure mean people lose their jobs?
Not necessarily. The ILO states that exposure is about tasks and that transformation of jobs is the most likely impact. BLS expects bookkeeping clerks to move towards analytical and advisory work even as it projects fewer of them. Exposure is a reason to review how work is done, not a forecast for one role.
How is outsourcing pricing changing because of AI?
NASSCOM's 2026 review describes Indian technology providers moving away from full-time-equivalent delivery towards outcome-based, risk-sharing arrangements as AI-driven productivity materialises. It does not cover providers elsewhere. If you buy from such a provider, compare quotes on what is delivered and how it is checked, not only on a price per person. We did not find a published source that gives typical price changes, so we do not state any.
Are India and the Philippines affected differently?
The sources describe each market separately and do not rank them. NASSCOM reports on India's technology sector and expects hiring to shift from volume to skill mix. IBPAP reports 1.89 million headcount and USD 40.3 billion in revenue for the Philippines in 2025, and describes a new AI-enabled delivery layer built on existing strengths. Ask any provider how its own work is changing.
Should a small business still build a remote team if AI is advancing?
It can still make sense, with a plan to review the mix of people and tools. BLS projects growth for accountants and for software developers, and expects AI to increase accountants' efficiency without reducing overall demand. Use the Remote Hiring Cost Calculator and the hiring model selector to test options with your own numbers.
How reliable are forecasts such as the World Economic Forum figures?
They are employer expectations extrapolated to the whole labour market, as the report itself describes, so they show what surveyed employers anticipated at the time. They are useful for direction and unreliable for any single role or company. Check the publication date and the method before relying on a figure.

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